Dalton — Collectively, as a nation, we’ve all come to agree that Dr. Anthony Fauci is one of the most trusted medical figures in the country, and for good reason, as he is recognized by his peers as one of the world’s leading experts on infectious diseases. Collectively, as a nation, we’ve all come to agree that when Dr. Anthony Fauci says to do something for the good of the country’s health, then we should do it. On Friday, May 22, Dr. Fauci said that the stay-at-home orders intended to choke off the spread of COVID-19 could cause “irreparable damage” if…
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Dazed and confused
“I’d like to stop thinking of the present, like right now, as some minor, insignificant preamble to something else.” — Cynthia Dalton — During periods of high daily stock market volatility, it’s easy to get overly fixated on the short term and lose perspective on the longer-term dominant trends. I’ve been guilty of focusing on the short term, having sold equity going into the stock market crash in an effort to lessen portfolio declines even though, in my heart of hearts, I felt then and still feel the stock market will again see new highs. It will be a valuable exercise…
Something is off in bond versus stock market outlooks
Given the recent gains in the stock market over the last month or so, it is clear that stock market participants believe that the country will be back on its feet in no time. Over in the fixed income space, it is another story entirely. The question is which market will be right? The betting in the bond market is that U.S. interest rates are not only going to zero, but there is a high probability that America, like Europe and Japan, will soon see negative rates, as early as next year. Six months ago, that was unthinkable. On Wednesday,…
Gold, the bug, and you
If there was ever a time to flee to safety, the Pandemic of 2020 is a great excuse. Stocks tumbled, bounced back, tumbled again. The bond and credit markets have been in disarray. Yet, few have even mentioned the precious metals market as a place to be. Even writing about gold in this age of Zooming, digital breakthroughs, 5G technology, and the like, seems anarchistic. The precious metal has been relegated to an obscure corner along with conspiracy theories, old warnings, and a small group of goldbugs who trot out “end of the world” warnings on down days in the…
Fewer hedges, more health care
Dalton — The U.S. economy lost 20.5 million jobs in April, bringing the unemployment rate to 14.7%. That’s the highest U.S. unemployment rate since World War II. During the Financial Crisis, the unemployment rate hit 10%, but until now, the previous post-war rate was 10.8% in December 1982, at the bottom of a 16-month recession. To put that in perspective, in the last couple of months, not only did the U.S. lose nearly four times as many jobs as during the Great Recession, but we lost more jobs than we had created in the decade-plus since the Great Recession. Yet…
Your company’s comeback plan
Shutting down your business due to the COVID-19 pandemic was difficult; reactivating it will be even harder. There are ways to do it so that you can cut costs dramatically. However, if you fail to adjust to a new normal, word is going to get around that your place of business is unsafe and your competition could take your sales. You want to flip that script. Your customers will be demanding visible steps that you are protecting them and your employees. To reopen your business successfully, you must build trust by exhibiting hyper-hygiene, providing protective equipment — like masks and…
The stock market is not the economy
If ever one needed an example of the above saying, today’s market would prove that point. Today’s unemployment figure for the month of April revealed that 20.3 million Americans are out of work, bringing the unemployment rate to 14.7%. The stock market gained more than one percent on the news. While new cases of COVID-19 are reported and deaths multiply with no cure or vaccine in sight, the NASDAQ turned positive for the year. Corporate earnings have been abysmal and future guidance nonexistent for most companies, but their stocks went up anyway. How can this be, you might ask? As…
Workers face a serious dilemma
During the last week or two, the Federal government has done an about face concerning the impact of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. From the nightly exhortations to social distance, work at home, and expect more deaths, the message has now switched to go back to work, re-open the economy and, oh, about those deaths, expect even more. The Trump White House has “officially” left it up to the governors of the states to set a timeline for reopening their economies, since it is illegal to do anything else. The guidelines advise that each state should monitor the number of new…
Earnings fail to support the stock market
Despite the expectation that earnings this quarter and next were going to be a disappointment, stocks have been gaining. That is because results have not been as low as some analysts have projected. However, when is better than bad not good enough for investors? It appears we have found out this week. It is a known fact that mega-cap, technology companies (the FANG stocks) have been leading the market throughout this rebound. This week, several of these companies reported and while the results, in some cases, have been stellar, (given the overwhelming economic negatives in the economy), others were simply…
If you are laid off, read this
As of the end of April, more than 30 million Americans have joined the ranks of the unemployed. Companies have closed, while the pandemic has forced many employees to remain at home. If you are one of the jobless victims of this pandemic, here is some advice on your next steps you might take. First off, do not panic. If there was ever a time for this to happen, it is now. The Federal government has provided you with a list of additional benefits that can help you through this unfortunate period. But the first things you want to know…