Dalton, Mass. — You know it. You probably hate it (most seem to). It’s the Great Barrington Declaration. This column is not a platform for me to opine on things I know nothing about, like how to best address a pandemic. Economists and investors should stay in their lane when it comes to things like that. However, given that the GBD was signed by more than 10,000 scientists, 27,000 medical professionals, and 500,000 citizens, it makes sense to explore how this strategy could affect our money. The Great Barrington Declaration is the product of the American Institute for Economic Research, a…
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Politicians play cat and mouse with investors
It was a week of will they or won’t they. Both parties claimed to want another stimulus deal done before the election, but the proof is in the pudding and as of Friday, the plate is empty. Investors may be coming to the conclusion that the latest negotiations between the Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Republican U.S. Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, was simply an election ploy. A way to set up the other side for failure, while making their own position look both caring and, at the same time,…
The pandemic has been good to the pet industry
Sales are increasing wherever you look in the pet sector. Toys, beds, grooming products, leashes, day care, you name it; the pet industry is experiencing double-digit increases in revenue. Better yet, there are few signs that consumer spending in this area will slow down anytime soon. As readers are aware, the retail sector has been one of the hardest hit as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. The pet care industry is an exception to that rule. In the past, I have written extensively about how recession-proof the pet industry can be. In both the 2001 and 2008 recessions, pet…
Few businesses sell
The goal for many business owners is to sell their company and retire with confidence. If that wasn’t a consideration of yours last year, it might be today. According to a Baker Tilly survey, as a result of the pandemic, 31 percent of business owners will accelerate their sale to a nonfamily buyer, and 24 percent will accelerate ownership to the next generation. Some readers probably won’t quickly sell their company, because they have failed to take the critical steps necessary to make it transferable. Selling isn’t enough — you need to attain maximum value first. Surveys by the Exit…
Riding the Blue Wave
Dalton, Mass. — A few weeks ago, I vetted the probabilities of how the upcoming U.S. presidential election could play out. The most likely scenario was that Vice President Biden would win the White House and Congress would stay the same (Republican Senate and Democratic House). The third most likely scenario was the proverbial “blue wave,” in which Biden wins, the Democrats keep the House and take the Senate. Online betting odds suggest that a blue wave is more likely than I had considered at the end of September. Those odds say that there is a 60 percent chance of a…
Investors reduce risk as stimulus talks fail
Hope springs eternal, but even the most strident bulls threw in the towel this week. American politics took precedence over the country’s economic well-being once again, as both political parties refused to compromise on a stimulus deal. But it wasn’t only politics that spooked investors. Across the Atlantic, investors watched as COVID-19 outbreaks escalated across Europe. Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Italy reported new records in infections, while France announced a curfew in order to stem their own skyrocketing cases. In the U.K., Londoners are now banned from mixing with other households indoors. In this country, despite denials by…
China leads global economic recovery
There is a saying on Wall Street, “first in, first out,” which aptly describes the experience of the world’s second-largest economy this year. The coronavirus was spawned in Wuhan, China late last year, but thanks to the country’s quick response, China has sprung back stronger than ever. By almost any economic measure, China has not only managed to avoid a recession this year, but will actually see its GDP grow by 1.6% in 2020. To put that growth in perspective, the world’s economy is expected to decline by 4.4% this year. The startling Chinese recovery in the face of ongoing…
One way or another, markets expect more stimulus
As the U.S. presidential elections approach, politics are becoming a bigger factor in what is moving the stock market. Some investors are already betting on the winner, and positioning their portfolios for an expected outcome. It is a risky bet to make. As of this week, many on Wall Street are positioning for what they expect will be a “Blue Wave” where both houses of Congress and the next presidency of the United States will be captured by the Democratic Party. What, you may ask, is their reasoning, aside from partisanship? Well, the number of polls that put Joe Biden…
U.S. moves to nail down strategic metals
Rare-earth minerals, with names like cerium, dysprosium and gadolinium have become ‘must have’ materials in the global race to win the technology battles of the future. The problem is that throughout the last 30 years, China has built a near monopoly in these strategic metals. Rare-earth elements (REEs), consisting of 17 different minerals, are used to make components in many high technology devices, including smart phones, digital cameras, computer hard discs, fluorescent and light-emitting-diode (LED) lights, flatscreen televisions, computer monitors, and electronic displays. China commands 35% of the world’s reserves of these minerals and produces more than 70% of all…
Trump contracts COVID-19. What does it mean for the market?
Dalton, Mass. — On the morning of Friday, Oct. 2, the world learned that U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump both contracted COVID-19. There has been no shortage of pundits telling us how this will affect the Nov. 3 presidential election. The opinions are mixed as to whom this news will benefit. For now, I don’t see any change in the four scenarios I ranked last week from most likely (Biden wins, Congress stays mixed) to least likely (Republican sweep). But that’s not today’s conversation. My assessment of highest-probability to lowest-probability outcomes has not changed since last week. Let’s focus…