Want to predict tomorrow’s stock market? Watch corporate insiders today.
It’s a fool’s errand to try and stick the landing and call the end of a bear market down to the exact day. Nonetheless, on February 7, 2022, this fool argued that there was a six-in-10 chance the stock market would bottom on May 22, 2022. I’m dying to find out if I’m right (or…
By Allen Harris
May 23, 2022
Stagflation is here
I wish people would stop talking about stagflation. It scares me. What scares me most is that there’s a greater than zero percent chance of it being an unwelcome guest for a good chunk of 2022. The term “stagflation” became popular during the 1970s as an oil price shock rattled the economy. (Sound familiar?) Stagflation…
By Allen Harris
March 14, 2022
ABCDEFU
“I was into you, but I’m over it now. And I was tryin’ to be nice, but nothing’s getting through, so let me spell it out.” —Gayle (to her ex) and fixed-income experts (to Allen Harris) Before I get into it, they say never bury the lead: There’s an increasing chance that the losses we’ve…
By Allen Harris
March 7, 2022
When will the stock market bottom?
On May 22, 2022, the stock market will bottom after declining 15.1 percent from its high. Or, maybe the bottom is already behind us after the decline of the S&P 500 stock market index cracked double digits during intraday trading. A completed correction looks similar to the start of a new bear market. The problem…
By Allen Harris
February 7, 2022
US economy today: is this a recession or just a growth scare?
On May 19, 2022, I attended an invitation-only webinar. It was hosted by FSInsight and presented by DeMARK Analytics. Fundamental portfolio managers check their work through FSInsight. Technical analysts check their expectations through DeMARK Analytics. Early in 2022, FSInsight nudged me to rotate some of my growth positions to value when they predicted that the first half of…
By Allen Harris
May 31, 2022