The stock market does not perform well in the year leading up to midterm elections. This year’s election may just add to the overall woes besetting equities. Historically, the average annual return of the benchmark S&P 500 Index in the 12 months before the November 5 election is 0.3%, versus the historical average of 8.1%. in non-mid-term years. In 2022, of course, with the S&P 500 down more than 20%, those historical numbers look fairly good. Unfortunately, volatility also tends to rise before and after midterm elections. Will midterm elections cause a market dip in 2022? But this year is…
Insights & Advice
Tag: inflation
The wealth effect impacts consumer spending as inflation and interest rates climb
Understanding the wealth effect Economists know that consumers spend more when their wealth increases, even if their income remains the same. However, if wealth decreases, the opposite occurs. The concept, known as the wealth effect, has spurred the economy for well more than a decade as savers’ 401(k)s and other retirement accounts increased year-after-year. At the same time, real estate values have also risen. Of course, most of the time these gains are only paper profits unless you sell your house or withdraw money from your portfolios. Nonetheless, there is a behavioral element to this concept. People tend to spend…
Investors prepare for the Fed
Investors are preparing for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for Wednesday, May 3-4, 2022. Stocks have been sold down to a level that may have discounted some of the bad news most expect. Is it enough? Could a couple of days around May 4th see a re-test of this year’s lows? It depends on how hawkish the Fed is prepared to be. Expectations are now for a 50-basis point hike in the week ahead, and two more in the next two monthly meetings. The markets are also expecting a substantial reduction in the Fed’s multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet. That…
Does this look smaller to you? Shrinkflation is here.
By now, you may have noticed that something doesn’t look quite right on your grocery shelves. Could it be that bag of chips, or maybe that roll of toilet paper, seems to have shrunk? Let me assure you it is not your eyes; we have all come down with a bad case of shrinkflation. Shrinkflation is an actual term, according to Wikipedia, which means “a rise in the general price level of goods per unit of weight or volume, brought about by a reduction in the weight or size of the item sold.” I must admit that, until recently, the…
A dud of a stock market
“If stocks don’t fall, the Fed needs to force them.” —Bill Dudley, former NY Federal Reserve Bank President (2009–2018), on how far the Fed should go to get inflation under control, in his Bloomberg op-ed. Dudley may no longer be a member of the Fed, but I believe he is communicating a message from them. It is not that a stock market crash would deflate inflation. Dudley refers to a concept I introduced in a previous column describing the death of the “Fed put.” As I said in January 2022, and as Dudley noted on April 6, 2022, the Federal Reserve…
Food, famine, and global unrest
More than a decade ago, the Arab Spring roiled the Middle East from Tunisia to Egypt to Yemen. Massive protests demanding freedom, equality and bread were met with repression and conflict. Could today’s growing scarcity of food spark another Spring of discontentment? The origins of the name “Spring,” whether Arab or otherwise, was a term historians used to describe the Revolutions of 1848, known as the “People’s Spring.” It was a series of upheavals that swept through Europe at that time. Republican revolts took place first in Sicily, spreading to France, Germany, Italy, and the Austrian Empire. They all ended…
Can the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing?
Can we talk about how crazy the first quarter of 2022 was? From Volodymyr Zelensky to Will Smith. The so-called “Don’t say gay” bill and the woefully mislabeled “Billionaires’ tax.” From the vetting of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Olympics (well, maybe not the Olympics), the world was buzzing about serious news and outright nutso news. Perhaps that’s why many people didn’t realize that the S&P 500 fell more than 10% from a closing high during that quarter. Later, the index traded 10% higher than its intra-quarter closing low. But it did. Since World War II, there have only been…
Beware an inverted yield curve
An inverted yield curve is one of Wall Street’s most closely watched recession indicators, because it works. The inversion of the 2-year/10-year Treasuries has been a reliable predictor of recessions. Since 1976, there have been 10 such inversions that preceded four slowdowns and six recessions. It’s getting scary, people, because it is getting closer to an inversion. The yield curve is a graph that plots a line depicting the yield of bonds against their time to maturity. Typically, the longer the maturity, the higher the yield. But when a shorter maturity bond, like the 2-year note, yields more than a…
Housing headwinds
The red-hot housing market is cooling off. A combination of higher interest rates and supply chain shortages are squeezing homebuyers. If these trends continue, the spring selling season may find buyers between a rock and a hard place. The total value of the private residential real estate in the U.S. increased by a record $6.9 trillion to $43.4 trillion in 2021. Since the lows of the post-recession market, the value of housing has more than doubled. By this time in 2023, Zillow expects the typical U.S. home will be worth more than $400,000. This year, demand for housing will remain…
Stagflation is here
I wish people would stop talking about stagflation. It scares me. What scares me most is that there’s a greater than zero percent chance of it being an unwelcome guest for a good chunk of 2022. The term “stagflation” became popular during the 1970s as an oil price shock rattled the economy. (Sound familiar?) Stagflation refers to a period when the economy is simultaneously experiencing higher-than-normal inflation and economic stagnation. Higher inflation? Do you think that’s happening now? Yeah, it is. Economic stagnation? I’d be surprised if Gross Domestic Product growth surpasses one percent in the first quarter of 2022….
A whiff of stagflation
The economy is slowing. Inflation is climbing. Investors are worried that these trends appear to be a recipe for the “S” word. The economic concept of stagflation where the witches’ brew of a faltering economy, aided and abetted by skyrocketing inflation, harkens back to the malaise of the late 1970s. At that time, interest rates rose to nearly 20%. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), reached an annual average of 13.5% by 1980. Oil prices (like today) surpassed $100/barrel. Blame for this period of stagflation fell squarely on OPEC, a newly formed energy cartel of oil producers,…
ABCDEFU
“I was into you, but I’m over it now. And I was tryin’ to be nice, but nothing’s getting through, so let me spell it out.” —Gayle (to her ex) and fixed-income experts (to Allen Harris) Before I get into it, they say never bury the lead: There’s an increasing chance that the losses we’ve seen in the stock market will double. On February 23, 2022, I opened the discussion of the 2022 Massachusetts RIA (Registered Investment Adviser) Summit in Boston. I didn’t make any friends in the fixed income world. In this column, I write about politics (sometimes), the…
Do not chase stocks
Commodities are soaring. Interest rates are falling. Stocks can’t get out of their own way. All of this is occurring while the first war in decades continues to rage in Ukraine. Seems to me that any gains in the market averages next week will remain dead cat bounces in this bear market. Yes, I hate to be a squeaky wheel, but I’ve got to call it like I see it. We have a much greater chance of sliding lower from here than higher. Here’s why. Investors received a new lease on life this week when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, testifying…
A Russian oil embargo?
Crude oil hit $110 a barrel this week. The price of natural gas rose in sympathy. In addition to the already-announced economic sanctions, demands to add an embargo on Russian energy exports are increasing. Be careful what you wish for. Most of the world governments have already instituted several hard-hitting sanctions against Russia. Financially, the harshest step so far has been barring Russia’s central bank and several large Russian banks from using the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) system. SWIFT is a messaging network used by almost all financial institutions to quickly and accurately receive information such as…
You’ll pay more, and you’ll like it!
Usually, when inflation creeps up, consumers switch buying habits. If beef prices go up, consumers buy more chicken. Or, if the kids’ shoes are too costly at Macy’s, parents might go to Target or Walmart. Generally, that’s not occurring in this cycle. I present those specific names as conceptual examples. Walmart is doing quite well. However, Walmart’s performance is not necessarily because consumers are looking for lower prices. Walmart is a behemoth and has had the power to keep its shelves and in-store restaurants stocked while its competition suffers inventory shortages. That’s not a hypothesis. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon…
Inflation is costing you an extra $276 a month
Inflation jumped 7.5 percent from last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index. Moody’s Analytics compared that rate to inflation in 2018 and 2019, which was around 2.1 percent. They concluded that the excessive inflation costs the average U.S. household $276 per month, or $3,312 per year. And here (among other things) is the problem with that – it pushes the U.S. toward a recession. Now, if you’re a sane person, you should think that comment is crazy. I’m not yet calling for a recession. It is my job to look for these sort of things. In late…