Jobs vs. Inflation. Which will the Fed choose?
Layoffs ahead? The Fed’s efforts to beat inflation, October 2022

For the Federal Reserve, slowing inflation may mean slashing job growth. Will we trade high inflation for high unemployment? Berkshire Money Management CEO and Founder Allen Harris explores how employment is impacted by interest rates, and why the Federal Reserve might want you to lose your job.     TRANSCRIPT: The Federal Reserve is an…

By Allen Harris
October 12, 2022

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Dollar bills fly out of a woman's wallet to illustrate shrinking wealth
The wealth effect impacts consumer spending as inflation and interest rates climb

Understanding the wealth effect Economists know that consumers spend more when their wealth increases, even if their income remains the same.  However, if wealth decreases, the opposite occurs. The concept, known as the wealth effect, has spurred the economy for well more than a decade as savers’ 401(k)s and other retirement accounts increased year-after-year. At…

By Bill Schmick
May 26, 2022

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Miniature construction workers split an Oreo cookie to symbolize shrinkflation
Does this look smaller to you? Shrinkflation is here.

By now, you may have noticed that something doesn’t look quite right on your grocery shelves. Could it be that bag of chips, or maybe that roll of toilet paper, seems to have shrunk? Let me assure you it is not your eyes; we have all come down with a bad case of shrinkflation. Shrinkflation…

By Bill Schmick
April 28, 2022

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Black and white historical photo of firefighters holding a trampoline and looking up
Can the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing?

Can we talk about how crazy the first quarter of 2022 was? From Volodymyr Zelensky to Will Smith. The so-called “Don’t say gay” bill and the woefully mislabeled “Billionaires’ tax.” From the vetting of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Olympics (well, maybe not the Olympics), the world was buzzing about serious news and outright nutso…

By Allen Harris
April 11, 2022

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Beware an inverted yield curve

An inverted yield curve is one of Wall Street’s most closely watched recession indicators, because it works. The inversion of the 2-year/10-year Treasuries has been a reliable predictor of recessions. Since 1976, there have been 10 such inversions that preceded four slowdowns and six recessions. It’s getting scary, people, because it is getting closer to…

By Allen Harris
April 4, 2022

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Stagflation is here

I wish people would stop talking about stagflation. It scares me. What scares me most is that there’s a greater than zero percent chance of it being an unwelcome guest for a good chunk of 2022. The term “stagflation” became popular during the 1970s as an oil price shock rattled the economy. (Sound familiar?) Stagflation…

By Allen Harris
March 14, 2022

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