Want to predict tomorrow’s stock market? Watch corporate insiders today.
It’s a fool’s errand to try and stick the landing and call the end of a bear market down to the exact day. Nonetheless, on February 7, 2022, this fool argued that there was a six-in-10 chance the stock market would bottom on May 22, 2022. I’m dying to find out if I’m right (or…
By Allen Harris
May 23, 2022
Make up your mind, already!
Hey, stock market. Are you going up, or are you going down? Pick one side of the 200-day moving average and stick with it, would ya? What is the 200-day moving average? The 200-day moving average (DMA) is a key indicator that investors (traders?) use to gauge whether an investment is in an uptrend or…
By Allen Harris
April 25, 2022
Can the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing?
Can we talk about how crazy the first quarter of 2022 was? From Volodymyr Zelensky to Will Smith. The so-called “Don’t say gay” bill and the woefully mislabeled “Billionaires’ tax.” From the vetting of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Olympics (well, maybe not the Olympics), the world was buzzing about serious news and outright nutso…
By Allen Harris
April 11, 2022
Beware an inverted yield curve
An inverted yield curve is one of Wall Street’s most closely watched recession indicators, because it works. The inversion of the 2-year/10-year Treasuries has been a reliable predictor of recessions. Since 1976, there have been 10 such inversions that preceded four slowdowns and six recessions. It’s getting scary, people, because it is getting closer to…
By Allen Harris
April 4, 2022
ABCDEFU
“I was into you, but I’m over it now. And I was tryin’ to be nice, but nothing’s getting through, so let me spell it out.” —Gayle (to her ex) and fixed-income experts (to Allen Harris) Before I get into it, they say never bury the lead: There’s an increasing chance that the losses we’ve…
By Allen Harris
March 7, 2022
Stock Market vs. Fed Rate Hikes in Volatile Market | Investor Pains
On June 15, 2022, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate to 1.65 percent. They vowed to “undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1.5-to-1.75 percent.” Let’s call it 1.75 percent for today’s discussion, which is in line with the…
By Allen Harris
June 27, 2022