Want to predict tomorrow’s stock market? Watch corporate insiders today.
It’s a fool’s errand to try and stick the landing and call the end of a bear market down to the exact day. Nonetheless, on February 7, 2022, this fool argued that there was a six-in-10 chance the stock market would bottom on May 22, 2022. I’m dying to find out if I’m right (or…
By Allen Harris
May 23, 2022
Can the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing?
Can we talk about how crazy the first quarter of 2022 was? From Volodymyr Zelensky to Will Smith. The so-called “Don’t say gay” bill and the woefully mislabeled “Billionaires’ tax.” From the vetting of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Olympics (well, maybe not the Olympics), the world was buzzing about serious news and outright nutso…
By Allen Harris
April 11, 2022
Beware an inverted yield curve
An inverted yield curve is one of Wall Street’s most closely watched recession indicators, because it works. The inversion of the 2-year/10-year Treasuries has been a reliable predictor of recessions. Since 1976, there have been 10 such inversions that preceded four slowdowns and six recessions. It’s getting scary, people, because it is getting closer to…
By Allen Harris
April 4, 2022
Inflation is costing you an extra $276 a month
Inflation jumped 7.5 percent from last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index. Moody’s Analytics compared that rate to inflation in 2018 and 2019, which was around 2.1 percent. They concluded that the excessive inflation costs the average U.S. household $276 per month, or $3,312 per year. And here (among other things) is…
By Allen Harris
February 22, 2022
Recession or Not? Analysis by Allen Harris, October 2022
Is the U.S. economy currently in a recession? The National Bureau of Economic Research isn’t officially calling this a recession, but after two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, Berkshire Money Management Founder and CEO Allen Harris is convinced that what we’ve been experiencing in 2022 is, in fact, a recession. And as the Federal Reserve’s…
By Allen Harris
October 12, 2022