Can we talk about how crazy the first quarter of 2022 was? From Volodymyr Zelensky to Will Smith. The so-called “Don’t say gay” bill and the woefully mislabeled “Billionaires’ tax.” From the vetting of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Olympics (well, maybe not the Olympics), the world was buzzing about serious news and outright nutso news. Perhaps that’s why many people didn’t realize that the S&P 500 fell more than 10% from a closing high during that quarter. Later, the index traded 10% higher than its intra-quarter closing low. But it did. Since World War II, there have only been…
Insights & Advice
Tag: Alan Greenspan
The ‘Fed put’ is dead
“Is this it? Is this the start of a 10-15 percent correction?” asked Dana, a client of mine. At the time of the question, the S&P 500 was down just about 5 percent from its recent high. Trying to sound empathetic and not cavalier, I shrugged and said, “Maybe.” I gave her the stats — that type of garden-variety, 10-percent correction happens about every year-and-a-half. The last such drop was 16 months ago. So, sure, we’re “due” for a correction. Following each previous such stock market decline, prices returned and achieved higher highs. Stock prices have been able to do…
The market will likely rise in the second half of 2021
Good news, everyone! The stock market will probably rise in the second half of 2021. Over the last 125 years, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose in the first half of the year, it was up 72.4% of the time in the second half. That’s more than the 66.9% of the time it’s usually up in the second half. The Dow is up 64.5% of the time in the second half of a President’s first year in office. If you can’t pick it up in my writing, there’s some sarcasm in my jubilation. But, yeah, I guess it’s…