On May 19, 2022, I attended an invitation-only webinar. It was hosted by FSInsight and presented by DeMARK Analytics. Fundamental portfolio managers check their work through FSInsight. Technical analysts check their expectations through DeMARK Analytics. Early in 2022, FSInsight nudged me to rotate some of my growth positions to value when they predicted that the first half of the year would be “treacherous” for stocks. DeMARK did their followers a solid by calling the bottom of the COVID-19 crash not just to the day but to the hour. Given the pedigree of these research services, it is worthwhile to share their findings with…
Insights & Advice
Tag: 10-year treasury note
Beware an inverted yield curve
An inverted yield curve is one of Wall Street’s most closely watched recession indicators, because it works. The inversion of the 2-year/10-year Treasuries has been a reliable predictor of recessions. Since 1976, there have been 10 such inversions that preceded four slowdowns and six recessions. It’s getting scary, people, because it is getting closer to an inversion. The yield curve is a graph that plots a line depicting the yield of bonds against their time to maturity. Typically, the longer the maturity, the higher the yield. But when a shorter maturity bond, like the 2-year note, yields more than a…
ABCDEFU
“I was into you, but I’m over it now. And I was tryin’ to be nice, but nothing’s getting through, so let me spell it out.” —Gayle (to her ex) and fixed-income experts (to Allen Harris) Before I get into it, they say never bury the lead: There’s an increasing chance that the losses we’ve seen in the stock market will double. On February 23, 2022, I opened the discussion of the 2022 Massachusetts RIA (Registered Investment Adviser) Summit in Boston. I didn’t make any friends in the fixed income world. In this column, I write about politics (sometimes), the…