More than a decade ago, the Arab Spring roiled the Middle East from Tunisia to Egypt to Yemen. Massive protests demanding freedom, equality and bread were met with repression and conflict. Could today’s growing scarcity of food spark another Spring of discontentment? The origins of the name “Spring,” whether Arab or otherwise, was a term historians used to describe the Revolutions of 1848, known as the “People’s Spring.” It was a series of upheavals that swept through Europe at that time. Republican revolts took place first in Sicily, spreading to France, Germany, Italy, and the Austrian Empire. They all ended…
Insights & Advice
Tag: supply chain
Can the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing?
Can we talk about how crazy the first quarter of 2022 was? From Volodymyr Zelensky to Will Smith. The so-called “Don’t say gay” bill and the woefully mislabeled “Billionaires’ tax.” From the vetting of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Olympics (well, maybe not the Olympics), the world was buzzing about serious news and outright nutso news. Perhaps that’s why many people didn’t realize that the S&P 500 fell more than 10% from a closing high during that quarter. Later, the index traded 10% higher than its intra-quarter closing low. But it did. Since World War II, there have only been…
The grumpy consumer
You would think that the Americans would be feeling pretty good right now. Wages are increasing almost monthly. Workers have their pick of jobs in this tight labor market and the coronavirus seems to be peaking. So why are so many consumers unhappy? Consumer sentiment numbers, as measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, fell in preliminary February 2022 numbers to its lowest level in more than a decade. Back then, in October 2011, the unemployment rate was more than double the present 4% rate. In a January 2022 Gallup Poll, 72% of those surveyed thought it was…
Are you ready for $50 hamburgers?
Fifty dollars may be an exaggeration, unless you frequent some high-priced restaurants in Manhattan. But consumers should be prepared. Beef prices, for the foreseeable future, will continue to climb. Some cuts of meat are already up 25% from where they were six months ago. As the cook in the house, I usually buy a prime rib roast for New Year’s dinner, but not this year. The cost for said morsel doubled in price since last year. I bought Australian lamb instead, which was much more reasonable, but just not the same. I assumed that the price of beef, like almost…
When will supply chain issues ease?
August 2022. Thank you for coming, everybody. Don’t forget to tip your waitstaff. Oh, you came for more than just the punchline? Well, pull up a chair and listen to me weave an oxymoronic tale of educated speculation. (“Educated speculation” — patent pending on that phrase.) I went to college in the early-to-mid 1990s. Back then, the study of economics was based on Adam Smith’s “invisible hand,” the unseen force that guided our short- and long-run decisions to maximize our financial outcomes. In the 1990s, I was told that I could eat all the candy and bread I wanted and…
I love the nightlife
“Please don’t talk about … all the trouble we’ve been through. Ah, please don’t talk about all of the plans we had for fixin’ this broken romance.” —Alicia Bridges Once upon a time, we enjoyed the conversation and company of others. Sometimes it feels as if we’ve gotten used to avoiding the public. For some, it now seems as if that’s their preference. After what feels like a lifetime of sheltering in place, perhaps we’re ready to mend that broken romance and find love again. Pole dancing classes are up 56 percent year-over-year, according to the Yelp Economic Average report for the third…
Weather worsens global trade
Changes in climate are impacting a global economy that is fighting to recover from a pandemic. Supply chain bottlenecks continue to worsen as continuous weather-related catastrophes close ports and snarl land, sea, and air transportation routes. Can it get any worse? Yes, and it probably will, according to climate experts. Nearly all actively publishing climate scientists agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change. The less than 2% of experts that disagree have published contrarian studies that either cannot be replicated or contain errors. I’ll go with the consensus on this issue. Here in the U.S., we receive…