“I was into you, but I’m over it now. And I was tryin’ to be nice, but nothing’s getting through, so let me spell it out.” —Gayle (to her ex) and fixed-income experts (to Allen Harris) Before I get into it, they say never bury the lead: There’s an increasing chance that the losses we’ve seen in the stock market will double. On February 23, 2022, I opened the discussion of the 2022 Massachusetts RIA (Registered Investment Adviser) Summit in Boston. I didn’t make any friends in the fixed income world. In this column, I write about politics (sometimes), the…
Insights & Advice
Tag: Bonds
You’ll pay more, and you’ll like it!
Usually, when inflation creeps up, consumers switch buying habits. If beef prices go up, consumers buy more chicken. Or, if the kids’ shoes are too costly at Macy’s, parents might go to Target or Walmart. Generally, that’s not occurring in this cycle. I present those specific names as conceptual examples. Walmart is doing quite well. However, Walmart’s performance is not necessarily because consumers are looking for lower prices. Walmart is a behemoth and has had the power to keep its shelves and in-store restaurants stocked while its competition suffers inventory shortages. That’s not a hypothesis. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon…
When will supply chain issues ease?
August 2022. Thank you for coming, everybody. Don’t forget to tip your waitstaff. Oh, you came for more than just the punchline? Well, pull up a chair and listen to me weave an oxymoronic tale of educated speculation. (“Educated speculation” — patent pending on that phrase.) I went to college in the early-to-mid 1990s. Back then, the study of economics was based on Adam Smith’s “invisible hand,” the unseen force that guided our short- and long-run decisions to maximize our financial outcomes. In the 1990s, I was told that I could eat all the candy and bread I wanted and…
Concern about mail-in ballots
Dalton — When I am wrong, I call myself out. I’m seemingly on the verge of being wrong. On July 15, I wrote, “For the rest of the year, I suspect the S&P 500 will live in a range between 2,700 and 3,450.” There is a chance the index will get above 3,450 by the end of the year. Currently, the S&P 500 is a hair away from its Feb. 19 pre-pandemic closing high of 3,386 (as you are reading this, the index may have broken above that level). The question is: How will the stock market perform if it does hit…