Insights & Advice

Dalton — Last week I had one of my roundtable discussions with the financial advisors of my firm. These talks are opportunities for us to aggregate and formalize the water cooler chat we’ve been having regarding the economy and the markets. These chats are great because the rule is to challenge consensus and to point out the flaws in each of our respective hypotheses. The summary of our collective wisdom at Berkshire Money Management is: We’ve got no idea. I’m not proud to say that. I feel very vulnerable saying that I don’t know what’s next for the stock market and…

Thank you, Wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_United_States#Procedure im·peach·ment pro·ce·dure /imˈpēCHmənt/ /prəˈsējər/ At the federal level, the impeachment process is a three-step procedure: First, the Congress investigates. This investigation typically begins in the House Judiciary Committee but may begin elsewhere. Second, the House of Representatives must pass, by a simple majority of those present and voting, articles of impeachment, which constitute the formal allegation or allegations. Upon passage, the defendant has been “impeached.” Third, the senate tries the accused. In the case of the impeachment of a president, the chief justice of the U.S. presides over the proceedings. Conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority vote….

Last week, a business owner friend of mine, Matt, reached out to me via email and said that it’s important that we get together, and that he’s been meaning to for a while. “But,” Matt said, “we’re both so busy that it’s hard to schedule.” I responded with, “name the time and place. I’m not as busy as you think.” I hire smart people to do the work I shouldn’t be doing. I’ve got a flexible schedule and plenty of free time. I haven’t heard back from him yet. Matt’s assumption was a fair representation of most small-business owners —…

Dalton — Last week the Fed cut the federal funds rate by one-quarter of a percentage point, which was widely expected. This was the second such cut in as many months. The next policy meeting will be in October and the odds of yet another cut, as measured by the federal funds futures market, are about 50/50 — standing at a 43% chance now compared to a 100% probability for this last one. Prior to the first cut, in July, I’d have argued that the chances of three one-quarter percentage point cuts were less than 50/50. However, in the most recent…