Research & Advice

Two weeks ago, in the Capital Ideas article “A lower high and icicles,” I wrote that “…we’re still in a cyclical bear market until proven otherwise. If we can break the S&P 500 above the 2,740 level, its 40-week moving average, I’ll feel more comfortable [that the stock market’s rally is sustainable].”

There is a soon-to-be-released documentary called “Playing with FIRE,” which is about the “financial independence, retire early” movement, advanced by the millennial generation. FIRE has gained momentum with coverage in Forbes, the New York Times and on NPR. There are about a hundred “high-traffic” bloggers detailing FIRE journeys, many of those being listed on Rockstar Finance.

In Davos, Switzerland, the world of snow and icicles, the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting was held last week. Quarterly, my firm publishes a survey and sends it to 4,000 local business owners for what is called the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, or BCI (which, coincidentally is going out this week). It’s a formal assessment of owner confidence and intentions. Davos’ WEF is an informal assessment of more than a thousand global leaders and business titans.

Last week I had the opportunity to present to the Ladies Business Group, a local organization of female business owners and decision-makers. The agenda was to discuss investments by way of sharing the mistakes made by myself and others, the lesson being that risk management is more than preparing a portfolio for rising interesting rates or positioning it from a prolonged trade war, or even reallocating assets during a bear market.