When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!
Stocks declined this week. This is a typical and largely expected reaction that should see the averages re-test the lows suffered in early February. Investors should understand that this is no cause for alarm.
In past columns, I had warned investors that there may be another shoe to drop before the correction in the markets was truly completed. Typically, stocks make a low, which we did when the S&P 500 Index hitting the 200-day moving average (DMA) before rebounding. We subsequently regained about half that loss quickly. And now we are in the process of re-testing the lows. This is a classic stock market pattern, so don’t fret.
Volatility reigns supreme right now as it should. The Dow, for example, rose or fell a minimum of 300 points in six out of the last seven sessions. Sickening declines, followed by nerve-rattling rises, have most investors on a roller coaster of emotions. If you can’t take the ups and downs, my advice is to turn off the financial news flow and do something productive.
Investors might recall that the stock market exhibited similar behavior in 2016 where the averages declined 10% in January, regained their losses and then declined again in February. Those who panicked and sold made a terrible mistake, because all the stock indexes went on to move much higher in the ensuing years.
Since markets always need an excuse to go down, this week the testimony of our new Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, gave traders a chance to do a little profit-taking. The new Fed chieftain, in his Humphrey Hawkins testimony before both houses of Congress, said nothing new or earth-shaking. The entire session was really a grandstanding play by Democrats to trash the tax cut and ask the new chairman questions that were entirely outside of his job description.
He did say that a fourth rate hike may be in the cards, if conditions warranted it. Fed officials have been saying that for months. The markets decided to hear it differently this time, however, and so, the markets sank. But it was Thursday afternoon’s comments by the president that really triggered this latest waterfall decline in equities.
“The Donald,” in his own unpredictable fashion, announced (during what was supposed to be a listening session of gripes by U.S. steel executives) his intention to raise tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum producers by as much as 25% early next week. His unexpected announcement caught both his staff, the Republican party and global investors by surprise.
“Trade War” has become the new battle cry overnight and Friday’s reason to sell all stocks, no matter how low, because the world’s markets are never, ever going to come back. Sounds silly, doesn’t it, but if you listen to the news that’s what you hear. Why are we so surprised?
Donald Trump had campaigned on this issue. After the election, he promised to do something about what he believed to be unfair trade practices by our trading partners. He backed out of TPP, threatens to do the same with NAFTA, and has promised relief for our steel and aluminum sectors, specifically. So now he has gone and done it. There is no doubt in my mind that our trading partners will retaliate at some point.
Contrary to the myth that the U.S. is the only country in the world to practice “fair” trade policies, we don’t. We dump our products overseas to support our producers here at home just like China or the European Community does. We dump our agricultural products, such as wheat and soybeans, overseas and do so year after year to protect our farmers. Most of which are no longer the actors you see in commercials wearing overalls. The guys we protect are more like the Koch brothers or mega-cap, corporate conglomerates like Cargill.
In the real world, we protect our farmers and they protect their steel producers. It is the way the game is played. God forbid a politician should tell us the truth! But tariffs are inflationary. Prices go up every time another tariff is enacted. If this tit for tat were to continue, and it might, commodity prices should start to move higher.
In the meantime, take a deep breath, accept that your portfolio will suffer losses, (because that’s what is supposed to happen every now and then) and expect a rebound.