Insights & Advice

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The Case of Crying Wolf

How many times in the past year have we been faced with binary events that were either “do or die” moments for the markets? Some turned out to be “dos” but others definitely failed to meet investors’ expectations. Yet, armageddon did not occur.

Despite these weekly doom and gloom predictions, the markets have weathered the storm. Consider these “end of the world” moments: the U.S. debt ceiling, the budget debate, the lowering of our credit rating; while in Europe there have been dozens of do-or-die deadlines from Greek default to this weeks’ EU summit. How long must the wolf cry before we become inured to its call?

The truth is that the media and many of its guests see things in such simplistic terms that either/or is about all they have time for. Real life, as we know, is much more convoluted and complex than that.

Sure, there may come a time when once again (like in 2008-2009), the problems that besiege much of the world’s economies will come home to roost. But, if human nature holds true, it won’t happen until we least expect it. Since, if we expect something terrible to happen, we will do all we can to avoid or fix it. That process, my dear reader, is what is occurring right now throughout the world.

So if you were thinking that European leaders have finally resolved their financial crisis, think again. Friday’s EU agreement moves them another step closer, but we still have a long way to go.

Twenty-six European nations agreed to forge a new treaty in order to establish an even closer fiscal union, one that will force members to get their fiscal house in order or “else.” Presumably, “else” would mean that members who fail to toe the line will be booted out of the union. Great Britain, which rejected the Euro in favor of its own currency, the British pound, in the original treaty, was the only member country that refused to join the agreement.

Drafting that agreement, ironing out the fine details, and ultimately passing it should be a guaranteed source of additional volatility as the debate continues. Although the fiscal integrity of several European nations was the source of the financial crisis, this fiscal initiative does little to solve the symptoms of the crisis. Those symptoms – huge debt loads, escalating sovereign interest rates, high unemployment, slowing economies and concern over the Euro — are still of immediate concern.

These worries will be with us for the foreseeable future and, left unaddressed, could sink the markets. But remember, just two weeks ago, several of the world’s largest central banks announced their intention to establish a floor under this crisis in the form of massive monetary intervention when necessary.

Over here in America we have our own issues. On the fiscal front, our do-nothing Congress and Senate guarantees there will be no additional economic stimulus unless President Obama can pull something out of his hat that does not need congressional approval. Monetary policy is on hold as the Fed waits for further clues on the economic health of the U.S.

This particular wall of worry is indeed quite formidable. Some investors have decided to just move to the sidelines until this volatile period subsides, and I don’t blame them. If concern over your investments is keeping you up at night, you are too aggressively invested, in which case change your allocation.

As I warned in my last column, we saw a lot of volatility in the markets this week. Expect more of the same in the weeks to come. That said, I believe we will move higher between now and the New Year.

Next year, however, may be a different story entirely.

Posted in A Few Dollars More, At the Market