Summer 2018 results from the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, sponsored by Berkshire Money Management Download PDF Version The Berkshire Business Confidence Index (BCI), sponsored and analyzed by Berkshire Money Management, indicates that there is a high level of optimism among Berkshire County businesses, as well as non-profit organizations that must make business decisions. We mailed out 4,000 surveys countywide, and received responses from the full spectrum of Berkshire industries—non-profits, retail, manufacturing, finance, lodging, real estate, construction. Each brings their own voice to this survey. What we have gleaned from this month’s results: From the last survey (April 2018) to this…
Research & Advice
BMM Articles
Berkshire Money Management Celebration for BMC Nurses
Berkshire Money Management Hosted Celebration for BMC Nurses After a long series of strikes, negotiations, BMC nurses celebrate agreement signing After nearly two years of strikes and negotiations, the some 800 registered nurses of Berkshire Medical Center will celebrate the signing of a tentative agreement that promises to alleviate a staffing shortage that has long been a concern to nurses. A celebration BBQ for the nurses was held on Sunday, July 8 at Berkshire Money Management’s (BMM) headquarters at 161 Main Street — the Model Farm — in Dalton. “These negotiations weren’t about unions. And if you ask the nurses themselves,…
2018 Mid-Year Outlook
In our 2018 Outlook, we made the case for gains and growth, but highlighted our concern for what we expected to be the biggest correction we had seen in a couple of years. We weren’t afraid of deteriorating fundamentals, but the contrarians in us were not comfortable with extremely high levels of optimism built on the back of the longest rally on record without a 3% correction. Those overbought conditions have been relieved somewhat, though not enough for us to ignore other concerns. Click here to read pdf Since we came out of the financial crisis investor optimism has climbed…
Resolution on the Horizon
I stumbled up a statistic yesterday that I found interesting, over the last 90-years there has been a 3% stock market correction, on average, every 21 days. Consider that prior to the start of this recent correction the stock market went 300 days without a 3% drop. As I write, the S&P 500 is off its recent highs by about 5%. Although the first thirteen days of the correction were scary (and unfamiliar), it appears as if we’re back to something where volatility looks more normal. Now we wait to see if the stock market breaks up, or breaks down. …
Berkshire Business Confidence Index, Issue 5
Spring 2018 Results from the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, sponsored by Berkshire Money Management Download PDF Version The Berkshire Business Confidence Index (BCI), sponsored and analyzed by Berkshire Money Management, indicates that there is a cautious level of optimism among Berkshire County businesses, as well as non-profit organizations that must make business decisions. We mailed out 4,000 surveys countywide, and received responses from the full spectrum of Berkshire industries—non-profits, retail, manufacturing, finance, lodging, real estate. Each brings their own voice to this survey. What we have gleaned from this month’s results: From the last survey (January 2018) to this survey,…
There is Nothing to Fear
There is Nothing to Fear, but… Virtually every sentiment measure we look at is telling us to sell. But they have been whispering the same for over a year. The difference between market optimism and pessimism is at its largest level since April 1986, a year-and-a-half before Black Monday. This tells us that the stock market is at potentially dangerous overbought levels. Many investors are waiting for that one special moment to get invested into the market; that’s a bad strategy. The first stock market pullback we get is going to be quick and impossible to time with any precision…
Berkshire Business Confidence Index, Issue 4
Winter Results from the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, sponsored by Berkshire Money Management Download PDF Version The Berkshire Business Confidence Index (BCI), sponsored and analyzed by Berkshire Money Management, indicates that there is a cautious level of optimism among Berkshire County businesses, as well as non-profit organizations that must make business decisions. We mailed out 5,000 surveys countywide, and received responses from the full spectrum of Berkshire industries—non-profits, retail, manufacturing, finance, lodging, real estate. Each brings their own voice to this survey. What we have gleaned from this month’s results: From last survey (September 2017) to this survey, overall confidence…
2018 Outlook
Gains for the stock market will be capped next year due EPS growth being, in part, tax cut induced, thus demanding a lower P/E multiple. The market should go up about 4.7% next year (give or take a half dozen months of starting and finishing dates, as the market could experience double digit growth before sharp weakness at the end of the year as it prices in a moderation of earnings growth). About half of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is priced into the stock market. Real US GDP will approach 3% in 2018. CPI inflation will…
Free Forum Event
Crane 401(k) Advice: Worth More than the Paper it’s Printed On Attend A Free Model Farm Forum to Learn More About Your 401(k) Options This is the perfect time to come to visit us at our new offices at the Crane Model Farm for some advice on how to make the most of your Crane 401(k), especially in light of recent changes. We’ll not only be hosting some talks for Crane employees but will be happy to set up an individual session to discuss how BMM can help you manage your retirement fund best moving forward. We are already happy to…
Berkshire Business Confidence Index, Issue 3
The Berkshire Business Confidence Index (BCI), sponsored and analyzed by Berkshire Money Management, indicates that there is a cautious level of optimism among Berkshire County businesses, as well as non-profit organizations that must make business decisions. We mailed out 5,000 surveys countywide, and received responses from the full spectrum of Berkshire industries—non-profits, retail, manufacturing, finance, lodging, real estate. Each brings their own voice to this survey. Read on to learn what we have gleaned from this month’s results.
Berkshire Business Confidence Index, Issue 2
The Berkshire Business Confidence Index (BCI), sponsored and analyzed by Berkshire Money Management, indicates that there is a cautious level of optimism among Berkshire County businesses, as well as non-profit organizations that must make business decisions. We mailed out 5,000 surveys countywide, and received responses from the full spectrum of Berkshire industries—non-profits, retail, manufacturing, finance, lodging, real estate, etc.—each bringing their own voice to this survey.
2017 Mid-Year Outlook
Small Business Optimism Helps Large Cap Companies The U.S. economic expansion is now eight years old and has a chance of being the longest on record, surpassing the decade long run of the 1990s. The U.S. stock market is expensive, but continued strong corporate earnings growth is keeping valuations in check, allowing for continued stock gains in the presence of low inflation and a slow-going Fed. Stock market volatility has been largely absent for years. A shallow stock market correction of 5-10% is all but inevitable as the natural tendency of all things is to revert to the mean. The…
Berkshire Business Confidence Index, Issue 1
Second set of results from the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, sponsored by Berkshire Money Management are available in PDF format here: Berkshire BCI, Issue 1 [PDF] First set of results from the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, sponsored by Berkshire Money Management This month’s inaugural Berkshire Business Confidence Index (BCI), sponsored and analyzed by Berkshire Money Management, indicates that there is a cautious level of optimism among Berkshire County businesses, as well as non-profit organizations that must make business decisions. We mailed out 5,000 surveys countywide, and received responses from the full spectrum of Berkshire industries— non-profits, retail, manufacturing, real estate—each…
Don’t let romance blind you to the financial downside of living together
Unmarried couples need as much, if not more, financial and estate planning than those who are married. Without it, one or both partners may lose everything they have committed to the relationship. Here is a primer on what steps you should take. Over 6.7 million unmarried couples are cohabitating in America at last count. Over 90% of them are heterosexual, in case you’re wondering. As such, these couples, regardless of sexual orientation or length of the relationship, are considered and classified as unrelated individuals in the eyes of the law. And the rights of unmarried couples are different depending on…
Quarterly Thoughts
Click here to open newsletter Special Pet Edition If you love your pet like family, protect your pet with a pet trust Pet insurance and why you should have it
Yes, You Might Actually Enjoy a “Working” Retirement
An important part of your retirement plan is a discussion of the benefits of working, regardless of age. Retirement is no longer an event––it is a segue into an altered definition of life as you know it. One definition of “work” is that it consists of actions that bring value to others and meaning to you. While you may feel that you’ve had enough work, it’s probably the underlying issues (i.e., meetings, corporate politics, commuting) that have left you drained and exhausted. Think about this: many people who go back to work after retirement are motivated by more than money––they…