The Berkshire Business Confidence Index (BCI), sponsored and analyzed by Berkshire Money Management, indicates that there is a cautious level of optimism among Berkshire County businesses, as well as non-profit organizations that must make business decisions. We mailed out 5,000 surveys countywide, and received responses from the full spectrum of Berkshire industries—non-profits, retail, manufacturing, finance, lodging, real estate, etc.—each bringing their own voice to this survey.
Research & Advice
BMM Articles
2017 Mid-Year Outlook
Small Business Optimism Helps Large Cap Companies The U.S. economic expansion is now eight years old and has a chance of being the longest on record, surpassing the decade long run of the 1990s. The U.S. stock market is expensive, but continued strong corporate earnings growth is keeping valuations in check, allowing for continued stock gains in the presence of low inflation and a slow-going Fed. Stock market volatility has been largely absent for years. A shallow stock market correction of 5-10% is all but inevitable as the natural tendency of all things is to revert to the mean. The…
Berkshire Business Confidence Index, Issue 1
Second set of results from the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, sponsored by Berkshire Money Management are available in PDF format here: Berkshire BCI, Issue 1 [PDF] First set of results from the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, sponsored by Berkshire Money Management This month’s inaugural Berkshire Business Confidence Index (BCI), sponsored and analyzed by Berkshire Money Management, indicates that there is a cautious level of optimism among Berkshire County businesses, as well as non-profit organizations that must make business decisions. We mailed out 5,000 surveys countywide, and received responses from the full spectrum of Berkshire industries— non-profits, retail, manufacturing, real estate—each…
Don’t let romance blind you to the financial downside of living together
Unmarried couples need as much, if not more, financial and estate planning than those who are married. Without it, one or both partners may lose everything they have committed to the relationship. Here is a primer on what steps you should take. Over 6.7 million unmarried couples are cohabitating in America at last count. Over 90% of them are heterosexual, in case you’re wondering. As such, these couples, regardless of sexual orientation or length of the relationship, are considered and classified as unrelated individuals in the eyes of the law. And the rights of unmarried couples are different depending on…
Quarterly Thoughts
Click here to open newsletter Special Pet Edition If you love your pet like family, protect your pet with a pet trust Pet insurance and why you should have it
Yes, You Might Actually Enjoy a “Working” Retirement
An important part of your retirement plan is a discussion of the benefits of working, regardless of age. Retirement is no longer an event––it is a segue into an altered definition of life as you know it. One definition of “work” is that it consists of actions that bring value to others and meaning to you. While you may feel that you’ve had enough work, it’s probably the underlying issues (i.e., meetings, corporate politics, commuting) that have left you drained and exhausted. Think about this: many people who go back to work after retirement are motivated by more than money––they…
Economic Outlook for 2017
After President Elect Trump’s poll-defying victory, I wrote the piece called “A Trump Presidency”. At the time I wrote it, I felt that would serve as our annual “year ahead” piece. And it mostly will. But an update and expansion couldn’t hurt, as it is clear that stated policies are changing. When it comes to Trump’s influence on the economy and the stock market, the changing dialogues show there are just as many questions as answers. Virtually no details about policies as well as uncertainty with respect to the timing of their implementation contribute to a wide range of estimated economic boosts (and where said boosts will come from).
It May Be Time to Reconsider What Retirement Means to You
Whether you’ve been told you should retire at 62, 65, or some other age, only you can decide what is right for you. In fact, you may want to reconsider retiring at all––at least in the traditional sense. Many of us don’t like the circumstances we find ourselves in––and look at retirement as the nirvana we’ve been missing. The truth probably lies somewhere between completely dropping out (i.e., piddling around in retirement) and never retiring (i.e., dying with their boots on). The reason many of us find ourselves in such situations is that we have been sold on an idea…
Are You Getting the Best Return on Life You Possibly Can?
When it comes to investing, the current standard of return on investment (ROI) can be self-limiting, adding pressure that is counterproductive. So much of ROI is not within our control. We can diversify investments––always a good strategy––but we cannot control how the markets perform or how global events affect the markets. Just as meteorologists can predict the weather but still be wrong, we can try to predict and plan for market upheavals, but we cannot control them. It’s important to balance return on investments with return on life (ROL). ROL is defined as, ‘How well you are doing in living…
Three Ways to Avoid the Downside of Retirement
When it comes to retirement, it’s easy to dream about the perks: sleeping in, traveling, reading a good book, playing golf––name your fantasy. Even if your retirement is fully funded, the reality can be far less fulfilling if you don’t plan ahead. Repeated studies have shown that people who do not have a rewarding retirement can suffer both physically and psychologically during retirement. Lack of mental stimulation is a primary reason. People are often forced into retirement before they are ready. Others think they are ready, and yet are not prepared for the day-to-day realities of a new lifestyle. Working…
A Trump Presidency
Thursday, November 10, 2016 · We don’t create your portfolio based on who is the president; we create your portfolio based on your goals. That being said, there are changes to consider. · Nobody was expecting a Trump presidency – not even Trump! It’s ok to freak out a little bit. · This is not an ideological report. We’re just helping you try to make sense of any potential changes, if any, in your portfolio in the days or weeks to come. Click here to read PDF We should all probably freak out a little bit. Ever hear the term…
Rose-Colored? Or Right-Colored?
Every time the stock market corrects there is media rhetoric that permeates the minds of investors. The popular rhetoric is a means to sell the fear of a declaration in the form of a question, “Is this the start of a recession?” Typically what we find ourselves doing is reacting to the media when investors ask us our stance on that question. And I don’t like that, because the stock market has predicted nine out of the last two recessions.
Dodging a Bullet
Friday, July 8, 2016 · Following the Brexit vote, global financial conditions tightened and signaled immediate danger to the global economy. · Since the initial post-Brexit global market reaction, financial conditions have loosened and the US equity market rebounded to pre-Brexit levels. This should limit the economic costs for the US. · We may have temporarily dodged a bullet because damaged financial conditions improved rapidly, but the stock market is still vulnerable. Please click here to read PDF of this article Following the Brexit vote of June 23, the global equity markets were meaningfully shaken, and global financial conditions tightened…
Brexit
June 24, 2016 · The UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) sets in motion a long period of political, economic and market uncertainty for the UK and EU. · We see sell-offs in global risk assets, with the majority of that sell off due to protecting against uncertainty rather than actual change over the coming two years. · BMM is planning on no Brexit specific trades, but it does contribute to acting on recent considerations. Please click here to read PDF We really should have been holding a lot more European assets in all of our clients’ accounts….
Seasonal Distortions
Thursday, April 14, 2016 US GDP growth for the first quarter of previous calendar years has been routinely distorted to the downside; still GDP growth for Q1 2016 was, at best, stagnant. Currently, a better metric than GDP for US economic growth is jobs growth, which is robust and continues to improve. The Federal Reserve is putting itself in a position where it may have to raise rates quickly when it does begin a tightening cycle. This has implications for a stronger dollar, which has implications for the economy. Oil price stabilization, even at these higher levels, will help…
Risk On, But for How Long?
Sunday, April 3, 2016 Given the decline in corporate profits in Q1 2016, the recent stock market correction was not deep enough to ring out valuation excesses. The stock market is mildly overbought; the pace of ascent must slow from here. It would be consistent with Election Year tendencies for the stock market to correct as investors become more uncertain about new fiscal policies from a new President, only for prices to bottom before the general election and then to rally into the year end. Please click here to read PDF We wish the stock market correction this winter was…