Insights & Advice


Markets in good shape for now

As the equity markets continue to consolidate around record highs, investors wait for the presidential hand-off on January 20th. This could turn out to be the best thing that could happen for the bulls.

Remember readers, there are two kinds of corrections; the kind we have been experiencing for the last three weeks, and the nasty kind that no one really wants to go through. The longer we back and fill, the greater the chances that the next move will be higher.

The caveat, of course, is that investors’ expectations will be satisfied, once Donald Trump and Congress get down to work. That could be a big if. So far the only thing the press, the politicians and Donald Trump appear to be engaged in is a discussion on whether or not the Russians tried to hack the DNC and/or RNC. No one has said they got away with it.

Come on people, why are we wasting time on this subject? Ask yourselves how many times the United States government has actively or surreptitiously interfered with another country’s election results? My God, American legislatures and presidents have actively condoned all sorts of black ops, bribery and election rigging in other countries for as long as I have been alive. In return, every other country does the same thing with varying success. It is what countries do.

The repeal of Obamacare was the other, more substantial, topic of conversation this week. Note, I use the word conversation, as opposed to any action or concrete proposal, from those who want to trash the Affordable Care Act. As I have written in the past, I expect some of the good parts of that bill to remain in effect. Early indications are that GOP legislators feel the same way.

The initial legislation was never meant to be the end-all or the final version of America’s stab at universal health care. The problem was no one in Congress, after the first two years of the Obama reign, was willing to do anything to improve the original legislation. Now, the Republicans are willing to do something. I say it is about time.

Do I really care what name they call it, or if it is done via the public or private sectors? As long as the GOP makes health insurance more affordable for Americans, I say go for it. Protect our kids and oldsters, while including more and more people into a safety net of health coverage and I’m fine with it. From an investing point of view, the health care sector is one area that I see value right now.

Big Pharma and biotech have been sold off by investors fearing the worst from politicians. Both Clinton and Trump promised to somehow get a handle on drug prices if they were elected. And now, thanks to the attack on Obamacare, the whole health care system could be up for grabs. No wonder investors have shunned those areas. They may be right. But I’m willing to take a chance that, regardless of outcomes, our health care sector will flourish in the future.

This is coming from a 68-year-old investor who has seen the inside of hospitals four times in two years. My knee replacements alone cost upwards of $100,000 and I’m only one patient in a booming business. Anyone want to bet on how many more times I will be visiting doctors, nurses, or taking prescription meds before I join those ghost riders in the sky? Demographics dictate that more and more Americans will be accessing health care in the years ahead. Bet on it, because the trend is your friend, regardless of whatever tinkering the politicians may do.

I am starting out this year as a buyer of stocks, especially on dips. It is too early to say whether my bullishness is going to last longer than, say, the first half of the year. There are just too many headwinds–interest rate hikes, stronger dollar, Trump and the Congress–for me to predict anything more than a comic book ending to 2017. All or any of the above could squash the market like a bug, but those issues will take time to work out. In the meantime, there is hope, and an investor base that so far views the cup as half-full. Let’s ride that sentiment.

Posted in A Few Dollars More, At the Market