Dalton, Mass. — On Monday, Nov. 9, Pfizer announced results regarding its COVID-19 vaccine. The Monday after that, Moderna reported good news regarding its own vaccine. Then AstraZeneca came out with more coronavirus vaccine news on Monday, Nov. 23. This column will be published Monday, Nov. 30. Who knows what new medical news we might receive that day? We will get past the shutdowns and the social distancing that crushed the global economy earlier this year. I’ve said all along that the pandemic is driving the timeline of the economic recovery. That remains true. Is this good news already priced into…
Insights & Advice
General Interest
Small town America is in vogue
The on-going coronavirus pandemic has boosted consumer demand for small town real estate. Whether that trend will continue with a vaccine on the horizon is anyone’s guess. In the meantime, it could be a godsend for those looking to retire and possibly downsize during this period. The obvious driver in this trend change has been the safety factor. The devastating carnage that occurred in the nation’s large cities during the first surge of the coronavirus convinced many families to pull up stakes and find dwellings as far from the mayhem (and people) as possible. Home listings in small towns jumped…
Purpose as a competitive advantage
Once upon a time, the sole purpose of a business was to make the owner rich. Today, it’s considered “mainstream” for a company to also have a more humane purpose. If done authentically, doing so will make the owner even more wealthy. Purpose is motivation, and motivation is a competitive advantage. A corporate purpose explains how its team makes a difference in the world. It also gives your employees meaning and gets them to dive into projects with more energy and enthusiasm. Purpose attracts and inspires employees. You can’t invent a corporate purpose. It already exists, and you need to…
The polling business takes a body blow
There has been one clear loser thus far in the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections and it is not the candidates. The polling industry has gotten it wrong twice in a row. Can the industry survive that kind of mistake? As votes across the nation continue to be counted, the pollsters and the media, which count on those polling results, are asking how Vice President Joe Biden’s 10-point lead nationwide could have evaporated in the blink of an eye. Political polling is a type of public opinion polling, which in the past (when done right), is a fairly accurate…
The market’s Halloween fright
This has been the worst presidential, pre-election week for stocks—ever. But the worst may be over. October has come to an end. Now all we need to do is get through a presidential election and its aftermath, and hope that Americans come to their senses in dealing with this pandemic. That is a lot to hope for. Prior to this week, the sharpest pre-election market decline on record dates back to 1932. Given the apocalyptic campaign predictions of what will happen if the other guy wins, who could blame investors for getting spooked? But the real impetus for driving markets…
Food faces escalating prices
It has been a long time coming. Commodities have been in the doghouse for years, but a combination of events are conspiring to lift the prices of soft commodities much higher. A definition of soft commodities refers to future contracts of substances that are grown, rather than extracted or mined. We know them best as food and fiber commodities, such as wheat or lumber. Shortages are occurring in everything from soybeans to wheat and it is not just in the United States. Readers might immediately think to blame the pandemic for this trend. You would be only partially correct. At…
Great Barrington Declaration bad for the economy
Dalton, Mass. — You know it. You probably hate it (most seem to). It’s the Great Barrington Declaration. This column is not a platform for me to opine on things I know nothing about, like how to best address a pandemic. Economists and investors should stay in their lane when it comes to things like that. However, given that the GBD was signed by more than 10,000 scientists, 27,000 medical professionals, and 500,000 citizens, it makes sense to explore how this strategy could affect our money. The Great Barrington Declaration is the product of the American Institute for Economic Research, a…
The pandemic has been good to the pet industry
Sales are increasing wherever you look in the pet sector. Toys, beds, grooming products, leashes, day care, you name it; the pet industry is experiencing double-digit increases in revenue. Better yet, there are few signs that consumer spending in this area will slow down anytime soon. As readers are aware, the retail sector has been one of the hardest hit as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. The pet care industry is an exception to that rule. In the past, I have written extensively about how recession-proof the pet industry can be. In both the 2001 and 2008 recessions, pet…
Few businesses sell
The goal for many business owners is to sell their company and retire with confidence. If that wasn’t a consideration of yours last year, it might be today. According to a Baker Tilly survey, as a result of the pandemic, 31 percent of business owners will accelerate their sale to a nonfamily buyer, and 24 percent will accelerate ownership to the next generation. Some readers probably won’t quickly sell their company, because they have failed to take the critical steps necessary to make it transferable. Selling isn’t enough — you need to attain maximum value first. Surveys by the Exit…
Riding the Blue Wave
Dalton, Mass. — A few weeks ago, I vetted the probabilities of how the upcoming U.S. presidential election could play out. The most likely scenario was that Vice President Biden would win the White House and Congress would stay the same (Republican Senate and Democratic House). The third most likely scenario was the proverbial “blue wave,” in which Biden wins, the Democrats keep the House and take the Senate. Online betting odds suggest that a blue wave is more likely than I had considered at the end of September. Those odds say that there is a 60 percent chance of a…
U.S. moves to nail down strategic metals
Rare-earth minerals, with names like cerium, dysprosium and gadolinium have become ‘must have’ materials in the global race to win the technology battles of the future. The problem is that throughout the last 30 years, China has built a near monopoly in these strategic metals. Rare-earth elements (REEs), consisting of 17 different minerals, are used to make components in many high technology devices, including smart phones, digital cameras, computer hard discs, fluorescent and light-emitting-diode (LED) lights, flatscreen televisions, computer monitors, and electronic displays. China commands 35% of the world’s reserves of these minerals and produces more than 70% of all…
Halloween could be the holiday test case
As October begins, mountains of candy have become a fixture in every store and supermarket. Halloween is the first in a series of fall-into-winter holidays. The candy companies are hoping it’s going to be business as usual this year, but that depends on who comes to your door. Whether it is trick-or-treating or costume parties, no one wants a visit from this year’s most fearsome of monster—the coronavirus. Worried parents wonder if this unwanted guest will be hiding among those candy wrappers, or in the noses, hands and mouths of excited children (or the parents and guardians accompanying them). Will…
Holiday Newsletter
CLICK HERE FOR A PRINTABLE PDF VERSION OF THE HOLIDAY NEWSLETTER To our dear clients, our friends, our family: Another year, another year-end (very non-financial) letter. Many of you may be sick of hearing from me. I had been writing about four large-scale missives per year, including an annual economic outlook. I traded those in for a weekly column that I write for the BerkshireEdge.com, called “Capital Ideas,” and a bi-monthly column for the Berkshire Eagle, called “Mind Your Business.” “Capital Ideas” is about all the things that touch your money – investments, the economy, politics, financial planning. “Mind Your…
Don’t let romance blind you to the financial downside of living together
Unmarried couples need as much, if not more, financial and estate planning than those who are married. Without it, one or both partners may lose everything they have committed to the relationship. Here is a primer on what steps you should take. Over 6.7 million unmarried couples are cohabitating in America at last count. Over 90% of them are heterosexual, in case you’re wondering. As such, these couples, regardless of sexual orientation or length of the relationship, are considered and classified as unrelated individuals in the eyes of the law. And the rights of unmarried couples are different depending on…