The economy is disproportionately affecting lower-income households and higher-income households. The rich, as they say, are getting richer. Many of the not-so-rich, sadly, still need assistance. Let’s face it — if you are reading this column, you are probably well-educated and successful. Most well-educated, successful people are also generous. Generosity is often directed by awareness. I know it’s seemingly callous to consider the economic ramifications of homelessness or lower-income households on investor portfolios. But it’s the very kind of impact that I will continually address, both in this column in “numbers” as well as in my commitment to addressing the…
Insights & Advice
General Interest
Inflation fears weigh on investors
Most stocks took it on the chin earlier this week. Technology shares lead the rout, but it didn’t take long before just about everything else followed tech lower. By the end of the week, it was as if nothing had happened. That’s called “chop.” Get used to it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which investors use to gauge future inflation, took the lion’s share of the blame for the downdraft in equities. Economists had warned that we should expect a higher monthly reading (0.2%) for April, but the data came in at 0.8%. That computes to a 4.2% price gain…
A labor shortage solution
The hiring boom that was expected in April 2021 fizzled. Last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report came in at 266,000 jobs gained compared to over a million expected. It was the biggest miss in decades. Politicians and many corporations were quick to provide a ready scapegoat for that failure. They blamed it on the weekly payments of $300 in federal unemployment aid through September 2021, on top of the regular unemployment benefits paid out by the states. In short, the fault apparently lies with the Biden Administration’s stimulus package. If the president and the Democrats had not provided these overly generous…
Bitcoin is…
Bitcoin is “disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.” —Charlie Munger, vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway When I was 17 years old, I bought shares of the Stop & Shop Supermarket Company (that grocery chain is now part of the Ahold Delhaize conglomerate). Being the kid I was, I held it only long enough to make the money I needed to buy the computer and the mountain bike I wanted. Stop & Shop wasn’t the only stock I considered. I remember ruling out Berkshire Hathaway because I didn’t have the $6,000-or-so to buy one single share. Maybe I should have split more wood…
Are Inflation fears real or imagined?
If you have been grocery shopping lately, there is no question that prices and inflation are going higher. The same can be said for the price of a gallon of gas. But is it a transitory event, or are we at the beginning of an inflationary era not seen in decades? Clearly, commodity prices, which are usually the harbinger of future inflation, are soaring. Copper, oil, sugar, corn, steel, aluminum and lumber, as well as many other food and material prices, are hitting multi-year highs. But it is not just commodities that are seeing a price surge. Shipping costs are…
The taxman cometh
“Let me tell you how it will be; there’s one for you, nineteen for me.” —The Beatles The U.S. stock market can perform well even when U.S. corporate taxes rise. I’ll get to that in a moment, but let’s not bury the lead. Increasing corporate tax rates feels like old news compared to President Biden’s newly released details on paying for his proposed American Families Plan. The White House proposes nearly doubling the capital gains tax rate from 23.8% to 43.4% (including an existing 3.8% surtax) for people earning more than $1 million per year. That would be higher than the current…
Fed signals an ‘all clear’ for equities, but the markets don’t care
Investors were bolstered by the Fed’s message this week. Low interest rates and monetary stimulus will remain pillars of the nation’s economic recovery for as long as it takes. Investors were comforted, but not enough to materially move stocks higher. It was indicative that despite bullish news on a variety of fronts, investors ignored the good and focused on the negatives. First quarter earnings results, for example, have been better than good, but not enough to satisfy the bulls. Apple smashed earnings estimates, sending its stock price higher in after-hours trade, but the next day it finished down. It has…
Empty oceans
Oceans cover more than two-thirds of the earth’s surface. For centuries, these bodies of water have supplied us with a bountiful harvest of ocean wildlife and millions of well-paying jobs. Unless something changes, however, the future of fisheries is in serious jeopardy. The demand for fish is growing with aquaculture trends reaching a growth rate of 527% from 1990 to today. At the same time, fish consumption has doubled as well. Declining fisheries, the destruction of the marine habitat, and the near-depression-like economic conditions of more and more coastal fishing communities, is no surprise to most of us. It has…
The pastrami must be amazing
Corporate earnings for the first quarter of 2021 were released in earnest last week. If you listen to the earnings guidance from one soft drink company, there’s good reason to have a Coke and a smile. Coca-Cola blew past both its earnings and revenue expectations. But since I tend to advocate for the use of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), you may wonder why I care. James Quincy, the CEO of Coca-Cola, called the company’s earnings a “super encouraging” sign that the world is reopening after being shut down due to COVID-19 precautions. Coca-Cola derives about half of its sales from locations…
Stocks hit with possible tax hike
It was a losing week for stocks. Most of the blame can be pinned on a proposal by the Biden Administration to double the capital gains tax on investments. It is not official yet, but investors are counting on an announcement next week. Before you hit the sell button on all those huge capital gains you have accumulated over the last few years, know the facts. Right now, there aren’t any. What we do know is that Joe Biden ran his winning presidential campaign on increasing taxes on the rich and on corporations. He plans to do just that, so…
Our hospitals are in trouble
COVID-19 effectively put a halt to most elective surgeries. As the nation gets vaccinated, however, medical authorities have given the all-clear to a resume those surgeries. But will patients come back? The answer to that question is important to the nation’s hospitals, whose bottom line has suffered as much as, or even more than, most of their patients. Last year, hospitals were forced to shut down surgery in order to create capacity for skyrocketing cases of the coronavirus. But even after beds opened up again (as a result of the reduction in new, serious Covid-19 cases), most patients are still…
Selling dirty
According to a survey performed by AlixPartners (AP), U.S. consumers are the “most anxious” about their health and finances. Chinese consumers rank the lowest in terms of anxiety pertaining to those issues. AP’s April 2021 survey concluded that “half of all global consumers say their spending habits have changed permanently due to the pandemic.” Whether you are a business owner or an investor, it is essential to understand where consumer spending will be directed. To figure out the “where,” we have to understand the “why.” According to the AP survey, nearly one out of every three U.S. consumers identified as being very…
Stocks soar on stronger economy
A combination of stronger economic growth, declining interest rates, and expectations that the economy will get even better pushed the U.S. stock markets to another set of record highs this week. As fears of higher bond yields continue to fade, sectors that do well under lower interest rates took off this week. Commodities in general came back in favor and even the greatest laggard of all—gold—saw some fresh demand. That’s right, the precious metal I least favored at the beginning of the year actually came to life, although it has a long way to go before recapturing its former luster….
A highway of opportunity
Most Americans seem excited and hopeful about the prospects for the Biden Administration’s infrastructure plan. Local politicians as well as their construction buddies are salivating at the possible promise of getting their share of this multi-trillion-dollar prize. But looking beyond the pork barrel, we might want to consider how innovation and technology could help America regain its first-class status in infrastructure. As of 2019, the United States is ranked 13th in the quality of its infrastructure, after countries like Singapore, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom among others. Of course, it may not be a fair comparison since the U.S….
Hope for parents of college bound students
Jobs and jabs
Bank of America (BoA) has been tracking the credit card use of clients who received the stimulus payments authorized by the American Rescue Plan (ARP). For the seven days ending March 27, 2021, aggregate credit card spending was up 82 percent from a year ago. Where is the money being spent? Everywhere. Furniture stands out, which reflects the heated home-building industry. And then electronics, clothing, airlines, home improvement, and restaurants (in that order of year-over-year growth). The two-year percentage change tells a better story because the world came to a halt the week of March 27, 2020. For the seven…