One day, it’s all about technology. The next day, back to commodities. And on the third, defensive plays like healthcare shine. Next week, we could see a new player lead the markets higher. The Russell 2000 Index, which is chock full of small cap stocks, has been trading back and forth, but basically going nowhere over the last month. I detected a stirring of upside momentum this week and will be watching that index closely after the Memorial Day weekend for additional follow-through. The small cap universe, (one of my picks to outperform this year) has done “okay” so far…
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Investment Portfolios
The carbon market comes of age
At the beginning of this year, the global price of carbon was $24.05 per ton of CO2. In order to achieve the emissions reduction goals of members of the Paris Agreement, prices need to reach a range of $50-$100 per ton of CO2. That makes buying carbon an attractive investment.The ongoing concerns about climate change have spawned several emission trading schemes over the last decade. The reasoning is simple: if left unchecked, carbon emissions (among other factors) will have a material impact on our environment and will do severe damage to the global economy.The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol of…
Fed puts markets on notice while crypto crashes
It had to happen at some point with economic growth spiking as high as it has, and inflation beginning to creep up. Investors should have expected the Fed to think about a change in policy. This week, we had our first mention of the dreaded “T” word. T is for taper and in the minutes of the Fed’s April FOMC meeting released on Wednesday, the entire financial community jumped on just one phrase: “it might be appropriate at some point” to consider tapering asset purchases if the economy shows “rapid progress.” In other words, the Fed is signaling that they…
Gold regains its mojo
In inflationary environments, investors historically have hedged their bets by buying gold. However, this time around, the precious metal has languished as investors bought alternative investments. But times are changing. The primary alternative to buying gold has been cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum, two of my 2021 buy recommendations (for those with a strong stomach) have enjoyed spectacular gains in 2021. Bitcoin, at one point in May, had gained almost 100%, while Ethereum saw gains of more than 400%. In addition, other commodities held more interest than gold for most investors. In January 2021, I recommended investors focus on some specific…
Inflation fears weigh on investors
Most stocks took it on the chin earlier this week. Technology shares lead the rout, but it didn’t take long before just about everything else followed tech lower. By the end of the week, it was as if nothing had happened. That’s called “chop.” Get used to it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which investors use to gauge future inflation, took the lion’s share of the blame for the downdraft in equities. Economists had warned that we should expect a higher monthly reading (0.2%) for April, but the data came in at 0.8%. That computes to a 4.2% price gain…
Stocks make new highs
It has been the best quarterly earnings season in a long time. More than 87% of companies that have reported thus far have beat earnings estimates. That is a record, and investors celebrated. Last week, I mentioned that this earnings season has been a classic example of a sell-on-the-news. It has been especially so for companies in the technology sector, but not so much for investments in other areas. What, you might ask, does this say about the overall markets? The most bullish interpretation is that we will continue to move higher, making new highs after new highs. The Dow…
Stocks hit with possible tax hike
It was a losing week for stocks. Most of the blame can be pinned on a proposal by the Biden Administration to double the capital gains tax on investments. It is not official yet, but investors are counting on an announcement next week. Before you hit the sell button on all those huge capital gains you have accumulated over the last few years, know the facts. Right now, there aren’t any. What we do know is that Joe Biden ran his winning presidential campaign on increasing taxes on the rich and on corporations. He plans to do just that, so…
Selling dirty
According to a survey performed by AlixPartners (AP), U.S. consumers are the “most anxious” about their health and finances. Chinese consumers rank the lowest in terms of anxiety pertaining to those issues. AP’s April 2021 survey concluded that “half of all global consumers say their spending habits have changed permanently due to the pandemic.” Whether you are a business owner or an investor, it is essential to understand where consumer spending will be directed. To figure out the “where,” we have to understand the “why.” According to the AP survey, nearly one out of every three U.S. consumers identified as being very…
Stocks soar on stronger economy
A combination of stronger economic growth, declining interest rates, and expectations that the economy will get even better pushed the U.S. stock markets to another set of record highs this week. As fears of higher bond yields continue to fade, sectors that do well under lower interest rates took off this week. Commodities in general came back in favor and even the greatest laggard of all—gold—saw some fresh demand. That’s right, the precious metal I least favored at the beginning of the year actually came to life, although it has a long way to go before recapturing its former luster….
Jobs and jabs
Bank of America (BoA) has been tracking the credit card use of clients who received the stimulus payments authorized by the American Rescue Plan (ARP). For the seven days ending March 27, 2021, aggregate credit card spending was up 82 percent from a year ago. Where is the money being spent? Everywhere. Furniture stands out, which reflects the heated home-building industry. And then electronics, clothing, airlines, home improvement, and restaurants (in that order of year-over-year growth). The two-year percentage change tells a better story because the world came to a halt the week of March 27, 2020. For the seven…
Stocks grind higher as bond yields retreat
April is usually a good month for markets. Historically, it is one of the three best months of the year for equities. We all know what happens in May (‘sell in May and go away’) but we will worry about that later. Over in the bond market, the bond vigilantes may have started to doubt their conviction that inflation is a fait accompli and so yields must go up. This week, yields declined a bit, which gave a boost to some sectors (gold and silver, for example), while banks pulled back a little. But Friday’s Producer Price Index report for…
Will infrastructure spending boost clean energy stocks?
Renewable energy stocks were all the rage last year. This year, however, not so much, with clean energy funds taking hits of between 25-50%. Will President Biden’s proposed $3 trillion infrastructure bill breathe new life into this sector? President Biden ran on a platform that included the build out of an infrastructure plan that would “achieve net-zero emissions, economy-wide, by no later than 2050.” By the time of his November election last year, investors had bid up the clean energy sector, which includes everything from electric cars and clean water to solar and wind power, by over 200% in some…
CAPITAL IDEAS: What a year
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times … it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” — Charles Dickens The year 2020 was dreadful. Our neighbors, friends, and family lost jobs as the economy struggled with COVID-19. Tragically, some of us lost loved ones to the virus. I keep those losses in mind as I review the year for the stock market. My intention isn’t to spike the ball in celebration of how well the stock market performed. Instead, it…
Cross currents confuse investors
You would think that with a $1.9 trillion spending package, an increasing rate of coronavirus vaccinations, and a potential $3 trillion infrastructure package waiting in the wings, the market would be at record highs. The fact it is not should tell you something about the indecision plaguing investors. When good news fails to impress, it usually means stocks (or at least some stocks) are headed lower. That should come as little surprise to readers. I advised investors to raise cash last month in preparation for what I see as a buying opportunity this month. The challenge: when do you put…
Tech stocks rise from the dead
The large cap technology sector bounced back this week as bond yields fell. It is a see-saw market filled with several cross-currents. But if you want to know where stocks are going, keep your eyes focused on the U.S. Ten-Year Bond yield. In my last column, I explained how rising bond yields are like kryptonite to the continued performance of what I call “super tech stocks.” During the last two weeks, the NASDAQ 100, for example, experienced a 10%-plus down draft, as bond yields rose to 1.60% from 1.25%. Investors sold FANG stocks, and technology shares in new-era sectors, like…
CAPITAL IDEAS: Stock market heat
“I gotta hold on to my angst. I preserve it because I need it. It keeps me sharp, on the edge, where I gotta be.”—Vincent Hanna Question: Hey, Allen, the stock market has been hot, and now it’s overvalued. Why do you remain invested? That’s a question I was asked recently. And by recently, I mean almost every week for the last few months. When asked that question, I actually want to answer a different question. I don’t want to answer “why,” I want to answer “how.” The answer is “apprehensively.” Today the stock market reminds me of the two…