When I make trades in my investment portfolios, I like to keep you informed. Not that you should do what I do. I mean, what I do in my portfolio or portfolios of clients may not represent your objectives. But you can use it as a guideline for what you are trying to accomplish. On Friday, October 8, 2021, I sold our position in the Innovator exchange-traded fund (ETF) MSCI Emerging Markets Power Buffer (symbol: EJAN). EJAN is a hedged investment that tracks the performance of Emerging Market stocks (EM). We also sold various non-hedged EM positions, which, aggregately, were…
Insights & Advice
A Few Dollars More
Markets snap out of their downtrend
It appears that we have established a range in the stock market over the last few weeks. The bears have not seen their worst predictions come true. My hope is that we leave this month where we entered it. September 2021 was treacherous. Bears were calling for a 10% correction at a minimum. Bulls, already on the back foot after witnessing a 5% pullback in the indexes, insisted we had seen the lows. Since then, we had been bouncing back and forth in a range. This week, however, appears to be a game changer. We have not re-tested the lows…
How to save money with tax-gain harvesting
Tax-gain harvesting is an opportunity to convert a long-term taxable gain into a potentially tax-free cost basis. Readers are probably familiar with tax-loss harvesting. Tax-loss harvesting is a form of tax planning. It’s the process of selling some investments at a loss, usually to offset gains you’ve realized when selling other assets at a profit. The losses can offset the gains, thereby reducing your tax bill. As the owner of a financial advisory firm (Berkshire Money Management), tax-loss selling is not an unfamiliar practice to me. Not only do I appreciate it because it reduces tax obligations, but I like…
Deficit deal bolsters markets
Our politicians in Washington, D.C. did what they do best this week by kicking the debt ceiling can down the road until December 16, 2021. Until then, we can switch our focus to the Fed’s November decision on tapering their bond purchases. Does anyone have any Pepto Bismol? Financial markets roared higher on the news of this temporary reprieve, but at what cost? For one thing, the passage of the infrastructure package and the larger social support program that would provide additional stimulus to the economy will likely be delayed until after the debt ceiling is raised. That robs the…
Markets are on the cusp
It was another tumultuous week in the markets. Volatility spiked as events in Washington and around the world injected an atmosphere of caution and indecision among investors. I expect more of the same. Welcome to October. A month in which I see a continuation of the last few weeks of uncertainty. The political circus in Washington, D.C. is not helping, and is set to continue making headlines in the days ahead. The debt limit controversary is probably the largest challenge investors face this month. Simultaneously, the battle between progressive and moderate Democrats over the passage of two government spending programs,…
The Dip Buyers return
Last week, investors suffered through the gloom and doom of a declining market. Many Wall Street equity strategists added to the angst by predicting terrible times ahead. I begged to differ, counting on dip buyers to save the day once again. And that is exactly what happened. In case you missed it, last Friday, the S&P 500 Index was at an important level, hovering just below its 50 Day Moving Average (DMA). This had happened several times before since March 2020, and each time buyers appeared to “buy the dip.” “I suspect they will again,” I wrote, “so, no, I…
Markets enter the danger zone
It has been a bumpy week for stocks, and it could get worse if you believe the headlines of the financial press. The issue I see is that just about everyone is expecting a nasty period ahead for equities. That makes me somewhat bullish. Calling short-term market moves in this environment is akin to fortune-telling. It is short on analysis, and long on my gut feelings. Granted, I too, have been warning folks that the September-October 2021 time period has been a seasonally difficult time for equities. My column last week addressed the possibility of a 5-10% correction, and what…
Some brokers are getting bearish
For four days in a row, the markets closed down. That is in itself unusual. It has only happened four other times since the March 2020 low. Does this portend further downside in September 2021? On Friday, the markets bounced back. The damage to the averages has been minimal thus far. But given how far we have come, more and more brokerage houses (Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, among others) are warning that the September-through-October 2021 time frame could see a 10% correction. How much weight should you give these gloomy predictions? If you are a short-term day,…
Investors are chasing stocks higher
The proverbial Wall of Worry provided plenty of foot holds for investors this week. The major averages continued to make new highs (or hovered just below them) despite bad news and focused instead on anything that could justified higher prices. The belief that the Delta variant of the coronavirus may be peaking in the worst-hit states was enough to cheer investors. Not that the extremely contagious infection ever had much of an impact on the markets anyway. Still, the hope that Delta has peaked gave added umph to large cap growth stocks. Helping this summer’s move higher was almost $30…
Stocks grind higher
The major indices have been working higher over the last few weeks, while rotation among sectors continues unabated. The higher markets climb, the more investors begin to question how long the bull market can sustain its upward trajectory. “Thin” would be the way I would describe the movement upward in the S&P 500 Index. The same term could be used for the slight downward drift in the NASDAQ and technology stocks in general this week. It is August, after all, and volumes dry up as many on Wall Street take vacations. Technically, we are trading in the middle of a…
The higher stocks climb, the cheaper they get
As stocks hit record high after record high, it might be normal to expect that equities will just get too expensive and collapse under their own weight. Not necessarily. One of the investor’s favorite valuation metrics is called the forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio. The concept is quite simple: compute the market value of any stock and divide it by what the company is projected to earn over the next 12 months. If the ratio is higher than the long-term average, consider it expensive. It is considered cheap (generally) when the stock trades below that average. The P/E ratio you can…
Economy grows less than expected
The good news first. The economy grew by 6.5% in the second quarter, which was one of the best quarters in recent memory. The bad news: it was a big miss. Economists were expecting an 8.4% rise, but the markets took it in stride. One explanation is that investors are well aware that the macroeconomic data is, at best, somewhat unreliable and prone to large revisions. It is not the government’s fault. The pandemic and subsequent reopening of the economy has made gathering economic data difficult. Another reason investors gave the miss a pass is that consumer spending, the biggest…
Wild week for stocks
In just one week, the major averages have had a 3% swing from lows to highs. These gyrations go hand in hand with the high level of indecision investors are feeling right now. Can you blame them? Last week, and into the end of the day on Monday, the S&P 500 Index registered a 3% decline. In the next few days, all of those losses were recouped and then some. While investors breathed a sigh of relief, I don’t think we are out of the woods just yet. Most strategists blame the decline in stocks on the free fall in…
Market bears are baffled
On a weekly basis, at least one of the main market averages hits another all-time high. But the bears continue to expect a correction. Will they ever be right? Sure, but playing for a pullback is a losing proposition most of the time. You may get it right eventually, but the opportunity cost of staying on the sidelines can be, well, costly, as the bears are discovering this month. A much better way to prepare for the inevitable next market correction is simply to reduce your risk by adjusting your portfolio. That might mean trimming back your more aggressive holdings…
A week of surprises keeps investors hopping
There were plenty of reasons why the stock market was a bit jumpy this week. Let’s go through them. Two weeks ago, I wrote that I was worried “that we could suddenly see a spike in new Delta variant cases that impacts economic growth. Remember that less than half of all Americans are fully vaccinated. President Biden, his Chief Medical Advisor, Anthony Fauci, and the Fed are all sounding warnings over this risk, yet the markets are ignoring it.” Investors finally caught on this week and began to realize the risk presented by the Delta variant and its impact on…
Markets grind ever higher
The S&P 500 Index is up 14% so far this year. Most other averages have similar double-digit gains. July is normally a fairly positive month (in general) for equities. Does that mean we can expect equities to continue their bull run through the summer? It certainly looks that way. Any pullbacks in stocks will likely be met by dip buyers. That could limit declines to a manageable level. A sustained rise in interest rates will likely wait until investors know—with certainty—the Fed’s next move. The thinking is that there will be an announcement on tapering bond purchases, which may not…