The good news first. The economy grew by 6.5% in the second quarter, which was one of the best quarters in recent memory. The bad news: it was a big miss. Economists were expecting an 8.4% rise, but the markets took it in stride. One explanation is that investors are well aware that the macroeconomic data is, at best, somewhat unreliable and prone to large revisions. It is not the government’s fault. The pandemic and subsequent reopening of the economy has made gathering economic data difficult. Another reason investors gave the miss a pass is that consumer spending, the biggest…
Insights & Advice
A Few Dollars More
Wild week for stocks
In just one week, the major averages have had a 3% swing from lows to highs. These gyrations go hand in hand with the high level of indecision investors are feeling right now. Can you blame them? Last week, and into the end of the day on Monday, the S&P 500 Index registered a 3% decline. In the next few days, all of those losses were recouped and then some. While investors breathed a sigh of relief, I don’t think we are out of the woods just yet. Most strategists blame the decline in stocks on the free fall in…
Market bears are baffled
On a weekly basis, at least one of the main market averages hits another all-time high. But the bears continue to expect a correction. Will they ever be right? Sure, but playing for a pullback is a losing proposition most of the time. You may get it right eventually, but the opportunity cost of staying on the sidelines can be, well, costly, as the bears are discovering this month. A much better way to prepare for the inevitable next market correction is simply to reduce your risk by adjusting your portfolio. That might mean trimming back your more aggressive holdings…
A week of surprises keeps investors hopping
There were plenty of reasons why the stock market was a bit jumpy this week. Let’s go through them. Two weeks ago, I wrote that I was worried “that we could suddenly see a spike in new Delta variant cases that impacts economic growth. Remember that less than half of all Americans are fully vaccinated. President Biden, his Chief Medical Advisor, Anthony Fauci, and the Fed are all sounding warnings over this risk, yet the markets are ignoring it.” Investors finally caught on this week and began to realize the risk presented by the Delta variant and its impact on…
Markets grind ever higher
The S&P 500 Index is up 14% so far this year. Most other averages have similar double-digit gains. July is normally a fairly positive month (in general) for equities. Does that mean we can expect equities to continue their bull run through the summer? It certainly looks that way. Any pullbacks in stocks will likely be met by dip buyers. That could limit declines to a manageable level. A sustained rise in interest rates will likely wait until investors know—with certainty—the Fed’s next move. The thinking is that there will be an announcement on tapering bond purchases, which may not…
Fed feels inflation heat
This week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting was a game changer. Fears that inflation may be rising faster than expected forced the Fed to adjust their timing on when to begin withdrawing monetary stimulus. The markets didn’t like that. It was a downside surprise that sent the U.S. dollar soaring, commodities plunging, and some equities sinking. What investors feared most at first was another “Temper Tantrum.” In 2013, and again in 2018, the Fed’s decision to withdraw monetary easing sent interest rates soaring and stocks plunging. However, it looks like this time around, the markets are taking the change in…
Inflation is running “hot”
May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped the most since 2009. That follows a similar gain over the past three months that has brought the total increase to 6.9% on an annualized pace. That is the largest gain in 13 years. Excluding the notoriously volatile food and energy components, however, the “core” CPI rose by 0.7%, which was still larger than the forecast of 0.5%. Readers might scratch their head when looking at those numbers, since excluding food and energy makes little sense to us, who are faced with weekly rises in both commodities. The difference is that the price of…
Want equality? Start with better jobs
Jobs. They are the primary focus of the Federal Reserve Bank, the Biden Administration, the Republican opposition, and most U.S. corporations. Supposedly, with all this high-powered attention, we still can’t find enough workers to fill all the positions available. Has anyone questioned why? One important reason might be that 60% of jobs in the U.S. are considered “mediocre” or “of poor quality,” according to a recent Gallup survey. If you combine those findings with the fact that many workers in the service economy are poorly compensated, the problem begins to come into clearer focus. If you listen to the free…
A churn at the top
It was a sleepy week in the markets for the major averages. Stocks flirted with the old highs, only to fall back by the end of the week. Energy and a few meme stocks occupied most of the attention. Crude oil spiked higher, nearing almost $70 a barrel (bbl), pulling energy stocks along with it. Energy traders were heartened by the latest OPEC meeting. The cartel expects demand to outstrip supply by more than a million barrels a day for the foreseeable future. As a result, the members intend to gradually increase production as the global economy gathers steam. Most…
The movies return
The Memorial Day weekend launched the unofficial beginning of the summer season. Movie owners are holding their breath in hopes that consumers, once vaccinated, may start to return to the cinema. Is it a false hope? Much has been written about the demise of the movie theater, even before the world was ravaged by the Coronavirus Pandemic. Sky high prices for tickets and the exorbitant costs of concessionary items like $8 bottles of water and $15 baskets of popcorn had made the movie-going experience almost as costly as a rock concert. At the same time, consumers were being offered the…
Market rotation continues
One day, it’s all about technology. The next day, back to commodities. And on the third, defensive plays like healthcare shine. Next week, we could see a new player lead the markets higher. The Russell 2000 Index, which is chock full of small cap stocks, has been trading back and forth, but basically going nowhere over the last month. I detected a stirring of upside momentum this week and will be watching that index closely after the Memorial Day weekend for additional follow-through. The small cap universe, (one of my picks to outperform this year) has done “okay” so far…
The carbon market comes of age
At the beginning of this year, the global price of carbon was $24.05 per ton of CO2. In order to achieve the emissions reduction goals of members of the Paris Agreement, prices need to reach a range of $50-$100 per ton of CO2. That makes buying carbon an attractive investment.The ongoing concerns about climate change have spawned several emission trading schemes over the last decade. The reasoning is simple: if left unchecked, carbon emissions (among other factors) will have a material impact on our environment and will do severe damage to the global economy.The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol of…
Fed puts markets on notice while crypto crashes
It had to happen at some point with economic growth spiking as high as it has, and inflation beginning to creep up. Investors should have expected the Fed to think about a change in policy. This week, we had our first mention of the dreaded “T” word. T is for taper and in the minutes of the Fed’s April FOMC meeting released on Wednesday, the entire financial community jumped on just one phrase: “it might be appropriate at some point” to consider tapering asset purchases if the economy shows “rapid progress.” In other words, the Fed is signaling that they…
Gold regains its mojo
In inflationary environments, investors historically have hedged their bets by buying gold. However, this time around, the precious metal has languished as investors bought alternative investments. But times are changing. The primary alternative to buying gold has been cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum, two of my 2021 buy recommendations (for those with a strong stomach) have enjoyed spectacular gains in 2021. Bitcoin, at one point in May, had gained almost 100%, while Ethereum saw gains of more than 400%. In addition, other commodities held more interest than gold for most investors. In January 2021, I recommended investors focus on some specific…
Inflation fears weigh on investors
Most stocks took it on the chin earlier this week. Technology shares lead the rout, but it didn’t take long before just about everything else followed tech lower. By the end of the week, it was as if nothing had happened. That’s called “chop.” Get used to it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which investors use to gauge future inflation, took the lion’s share of the blame for the downdraft in equities. Economists had warned that we should expect a higher monthly reading (0.2%) for April, but the data came in at 0.8%. That computes to a 4.2% price gain…
A labor shortage solution
The hiring boom that was expected in April 2021 fizzled. Last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report came in at 266,000 jobs gained compared to over a million expected. It was the biggest miss in decades. Politicians and many corporations were quick to provide a ready scapegoat for that failure. They blamed it on the weekly payments of $300 in federal unemployment aid through September 2021, on top of the regular unemployment benefits paid out by the states. In short, the fault apparently lies with the Biden Administration’s stimulus package. If the president and the Democrats had not provided these overly generous…