Insights & Advice


Central Banks Backstop Global Economies

On Wednesday, global markets rallied more than at any time since March 2009. The news was positive and enough to trigger a stampede by short sellers to cover their positions. The moral of this tale is don’t bet against the world’s central bankers.

Before the markets opened, central banks of the U.S., Canada, England, Switzerland, Japan and Europe announced a plan to provide cheap dollar loans to European banks and other institutions, reminiscent of the actions they took after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008. This action, like that of 2008, puts all investors on notice that the world’s central bankers have no intention of letting Europe go down in flames anytime soon. It is a lesson we should have learned by now after three years of government intervention in capital markets.

 Clearly, the week was shaping up to be another dismal episode in the European crisis, despite Monday’s 3% rally. The S&P credit agency had lowered the credit ratings on a slew of banks. European sovereign bond prices continued to plummet and rumors abounded of a possible bank failure somewhere in Europe as early as December.  The news came in the nick of time.

And time is the one commodity that is most in demand among Europe’s leaders. Make no mistake; this latest action by the central banks is a stopgap measure. It is intended to give European nations the time to come up with a solution to their crisis. It is not a panacea that will fix the PIGS, Italy or Spain’s faltering economies and enormous debtload.

Think back to our own Federal Reserves’ actions over the last few years.  The bank has continuously injected liquidity into our market through a variety of tools including lower interesting rates, buying bonds, and delving into the credit and mortgage markets directly. Its efforts continue today and are designed to keep the financial markets from collapsing, giving the government and private sector vital breathing room to dig the economy out of a recession.

How has that worked for us?

 In my opinion, their actions avoided a total collapse of financial markets, averted another Great Depression, kept unemployment from climbing even higher than it could have been, and restored confidence among investors. Where the ball has been fumbled is among our private and public sectors.

Our government’s inability to respond to slow growth, high debt and high unemployment is a failure of our politicians. Private companies have also failed by hoarding cash, refusing to lend and bolstering profits by avoiding new hiring while working existing employees to death.  Bottom line, our leaders have frittered away a lot of the time the Fed has given us.

The question: will Europe repeat the mistakes of our leaders or will they use this time to actually come up with solutions to their economic problems?

The challenges are great and in many ways even deeper and more difficult to solve. Their debt issues are with countries as well as banks. Unlike the U.S. dollar, their currency is in jeopardy. Governments are in far worse shape than they were two years ago and there are serious political and economic contradictions within the European Community.

One might dismiss their chances, given the embarrassing and inept handling of the crisis that has already dragged on for two years. I believe that the central bank actions have granted Europe and world markets a temporary reprieve and I fully expect Europe to respond positively to this gift.

Posted in Portfolio Advice, The Retired Advisor