Monday, December 19, 2016
- Using a P/E multiple of 20, our S&P 500 target for 2017 is 2,400 (only 5.0% higher than current levels). That target has a margin of error of (at least) one P/E point, bringing the S&P
August 12, 2016
- US consumers are spending, and doing so without depleting their savings.
- Household formation is on track for further growth, thus providing a boost to the housing market.
- Inventories have depleted to a level where manufacturing has stabilized.
Friday, July 8, 2016
· Following the Brexit vote, global financial conditions tightened and signaled immediate danger to the global economy.
· Since the initial post-Brexit global market reaction, financial conditions have loosened and the US equity market rebounded to …
Sunday, April 3, 2016
Given the decline in corporate profits in Q1 2016, the recent stock market correction was not deep enough to ring out valuation excesses.
- The stock market is mildly overbought; the pace of ascent must slow from
Monday, February 22, 2016
(Homage to Thirty Six Years of Knowing More Than All of Us)
It is very difficult to beat the market over the long term. Not just very difficult, but extremely so. You overlook this …
Friday, February 5, 2016
First, an update to the 2016 Economic Outlook
The stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions.
- The stock market has always been and always will be volatile.
- For those sweet on the economy,
Economic Expansions Do Not Die of Old Age
- The U.S. economic expansion is entering its seventh year, and while that may make it old, it is aging well.
- Economic expansions do not die of old age.
- While the expansion
- First Quarter real GDP growth was disappointing, but the sluggish growth will prove temporary.
- Though the benefits of lower oil prices have been slow to materialize, consumers have built up their savings and in the quarters to come some of
December 29, 2014
What We Got Wrong in 2014
- Higher interest rates would have meant challenging the stock market’s ascent, so we took action to protect portfolios, but, thankfully, it turned out to be insurance that we didn’t have